Mmm, can you smell that? That fragrance wafting under your nose is good old fashioned behavioral decision making, just like mom used to make it.
Let’s compare two hypothetical situations, both posed to a group of doctors (via a New Yorker article:
The U.S. is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian disease, which is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative programs to combat the disease have been proposed. If program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved. If program B is adopted, there is a one-third probability that 600 people will be saved and a two-thirds probability that no people will be saved. Which of the two programs would you favor?
You likely chose the same as the doctors, namely program A because you’re risk-averse. But if you thought rationally, you’d realize, as My Cousin Vinny so eloquently put it, “It’s a bullshit question”. That’s right, Marissa, they’re mathematically equivalent.
Now, on to the next example:
The U.S. is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian disease, which is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative programs to combat the disease have been proposed. If program C is adopted, 400 people will die. If program D is adopted, there is a one-third probability that nobody will die and a two-thirds probability that 600 people will die. Which of the two programs would you favor?
Again, they’re mathematically equivalent, but this time doctors chose program D.
So what does this say about human behavior? Well, we’re all still cavemen, as much as we try to suit it up and surround ourselves with books, we’re driven utterly by emotion, fear being the strongest.
Don’t believe me? When’s the last time you took a risk? A BIG risk? Maybe it’s talking back to your boss and standing up for what you believe in, maybe it’s quitting your job because you hate it. Or maybe it’s just going up to that guy/girl you find attractive and striking up a conversation.
Regardless, more often than not you don’t take that risk because fear motivates you more than a rational assessment of the situation (“oh. my. god. what will they think of me if I fail…”).
As Mr. Jobs said, “Don’t be trapped by dogma.”
